The
Indian debt market while composed of bonds, both government and
corporate, is dominated by the government bonds. The central government
bonds are the predominant and most liquid component of the bond
market. In the offing is the new Interest Rate Derivatives Segment.
Mr. Arun Kaul, GM, Punjab National Bank, explained that during the
year there was an almost three fold increase in volume - against
a daily volume of Rs. 1000 crore, the daily volumes now are almost
at par with Gilts markets. However despite the increased volumes,
the number of participants is limited to about two dozen active
players. Since a majority of the participants are triple A-rated
and 80 per cent of the trade is direct, there exist minimal settlement
risks. The market would further develop once uniform guidelines
on accounting, valuation and so on are in place. On the other hand
the system of valuing the Interest Rate Futures on Zero Coupon Yield
Curve has limited its popularity among participants. Using the YTM
curve for the valuations would help in developing the market for
this instrument.
The bond markets exhibit a much lower volatility than equities,
and all bonds are prices based on the same macroeconomic information.
Bond market liquidity is normally much higher than stock market
liquidity in most of the countries. The performance of the market
for debt is directly related to the interest rate movement as it
is reflected in the yields of government bonds and corporate debentures,
MIBOR related Commercial Papers and Non Convertible Debentures .
In order to remain competitive in the market and also to improve
the profitability, corporate clients are looking for low cost funds.
Mumbai Inter-bank offered rate (MIBOR) is fluctuating in nature
and indicates prevailing rates in money market. Banks have introduced
MIBOR linked low cost lending schemes to top rated corporate clients,
having a minimum credit rating as "A". The liquidity in
the system also impacts the yields on the short term instruments
such as the CPs and NCDs. The government borrowing program under
the market stabilization scheme (MSS) is a tool to manage liquidity
in the system with the long term view. Another temporary tool used
to manage liquidity in the system is the Liquidity adjustment facility
(LAF). The investment strategy that can be kept in mind is that,
if the interest rate in the economy is moving downward, one tries
to maximize the yield by investment in long term maturity instruments
which were issued earlier and carry the interest rate for the yield
or coupon greater than current available interest rate. In case
of the rising interest rate scenario in the economy, it is advisable
to minimize the duration or maturity profile of instrument or portfolio
that is hold. This would minimize the potential losses by keeping
lower yielding long maturity instrument in the portfolio. Taking
the approach of the noted Professional Investor and better known
to be "Father of Value Investing" - Benjamin Graham, opting
for a passive or defensive strategy takes little time or effort
but requires an almost ascetic detachment from the alluring hullabaloo
of the market.
Finally, let us have a light glimpse of the subtleties and pitfalls
of the debt instrument. Let us take into consideration there is
less uncertainty about the cash flows accruing to the bond holders
as opposed to the share holder. The emphasis is therefore more on
the fine calculations and analysis of the instrument. These computations
are not favorable in equities as there is greater uncertainty about
the numbers that one is working with. Practically the bond prices
move or fluctuate less than equity prices and when desired superior
performance has to be on the lookout for the even smaller differentials
in prices and returns. The investor should ponder the level of risk
of the debt market as to prosper effectively on portfolio strategy
making. The debt market instrument is not entirely risk-free. Specifically
two main types of risks are involved i.e. default risk and the interest
rate risk. The former arises when the company defaults the interest
or principal obligation. The later occurs when the bond doesn't
represent the true return to the investor over his holding period
unless the interest rates remain unchanged throughout the holding
period. The holding period return is exposed to the interest rate
risk. To manage the bond portfolios, we must assess the two components
of risk and evaluate the Yield To Maturity in relation to this risk.
Lastly, I must quote from the investment thinker Charles Ellis who
says "it requires emotionally demanding approach" for
the debt instrument strategy making.
|