The
concept that stock prices and interest rates enjoy an inverse relationship
is actually quite theoretical rather than absolute. An inverse relationship
seems to exist between stock prices and interest rates because interest
rates are closely tied to discount rates, therefore a rise in interest
rates do (frequently, but not always) have a negative impact on
stock prices (and vice-versa). The strange relationship between
stocks and interest rates is explained this way:
In an ideal world, the price of a stock would equal to the present
value (PV) derived from adding up the expected dividends from each
year in the stock's future.
Because of expected future impact, when interest rate rises by a
certain percentage, a stock's price (in present value) drops by
more than that percentage. Thus, stock prices and interest rates
have an inverse relationship.
Put simply, a $20 dividend paying stock in a 10% economy is valued
the same as a $50 dividend paying stock in a 25% economy. When interest
rates increase we can reasonably expect stocks to drop in price.
The reason for this happening is quite simple. When a person invests
in the stock market, he expects a certain level of return. Now,
when the interest rate rises, the price at which he buys the stock
needs to be low enough for him to benefit from the increased interest
rate. If the price of the stock were to fall rather than rise, the
additional benefit that he may derive from a higher interest rate
will be negated by the higher cost of the stock.
The required return might rise if the risk premium or the risk-free
rate increases. For instance, the risk premium might go up for a
company if one of its top managers resigns or if the company suddenly
decides to lower its dividend payments. And the risk-free rate will
increase if interest rates rise.
So, changes in interest rates impact the theoretical value of companies
and their shares: basically, a share's fair value is its projected
future cash flows discounted to the present, using the investor's
required rate of return. If interest rates fall and everything else
is held constant, share value should rise. It is for this reason
that a cut in interest rates by a central bank is greated with cheers
from the market. This is particularly so of the lowering of interest
rates by the United States Federal Reserve. Because the interest
rates in the U.S have a chain effect around the world, a rise or
cut in U.S interest rates greatly affects global markets.
If interest rates drop then money is cheaper (this is because people
or businesses can borrow money at a lower cost, from banks).
In turn this leads to
More money invested in the stock market, which drives up the demand
for stocks.
There are fewer new issues of stocks because businesses prefer to
borrow money at a cheaper rate from banks, rather than from investors.
With key short-term interest rates increasing, a large part of the
funds could be siphoned off to the bond and debt markets or vice
versa.
The graph below traces the nexus between interest rates and returns
generated by the debt market.
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